Hathaway vs. Mejia: Final Week of NJ-11 Special Election

April 16 is the date. Mark it. That’s when voters across the 11th Congressional District decide whether Democrat Analilia Mejia or Republican Joe Hathaway fills the seat Mikie Sherrill vacated after winning the governorship.

It’s a special election, and both campaigns are burning every hour they’ve got left.

Hathaway hasn’t been shy about going negative. He’s labeled Mejia an antisemitic socialist. Mejia fired back, calling him a liar and going hard at his support for the president’s mass deportation push. The district spans Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties, and Democrats carry a clear registration advantage there. That’s the wall Hathaway has to climb.

His strategy is a long shot on paper. After an event in Madison Wednesday night, Hathaway told reporters he’s banking on pulling anti-Trump voters who might want to take a Republican for a test drive in a lower-stakes race before November. He leaned in on Jewish voters specifically, saying they’re “very concerned about what Mejia has to offer.” The pitch: give me your vote Tuesday, then hold me to it when the midterms come around.

Dan Cassino, a political science professor and pollster at Fairleigh Dickinson University, doesn’t see that happening. He’s skeptical that special elections attract the kind of independent-minded, ticket-splitting voter Hathaway needs. The people who show up when the stakes feel lower tend to be the true believers, not the curious middle. “Democrats as a whole do not seem interested in finding common ground with Trump, or really questioning the Democratic candidate too much,” he said. “Partisanship is very, very dominant here.”

That observation landed Monday night in Chatham. Nearly 200 people packed a community center to hear Mejia share the stage with former Rep. Tom Malinowski and Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin. The event was billed as a “democracy and accountability town hall,” and for over an hour the three Democrats unloaded on President Trump, hitting him on the war in Iran and his drive for new federal voting restrictions. The crowd gave standing ovations more than once. Swing voters weren’t filling those seats.

Mejia’s team pushed back on any read that standing next to Malinowski, a primary opponent she beat in February, signals she’s softening her brand. She pointed to her work inside the Biden administration and her support for former Gov. Phil Murphy’s 2021 reelection as proof she doesn’t need to move toward the center to win.

The race matters past the 11th District’s borders. Political analysts are treating this contest as an early bellwether for November, a way to take the temperature on Democratic turnout intensity and whether Republican crossover appeals can get any traction in a blue-leaning New Jersey district. The state’s history makes it a reliable early indicator of national mood shifts, and everyone on both sides of this race knows it.

Cassino put it plainly. “Partisanship is very, very dominant here.”

April 16 comes Tuesday. The district will answer.